FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on December 4, 2019

EUR/USD

US President Donald Trump surpassed himself. After raising duties on metal from Argentina and Brazil, he announced his intention to introduce an additional 15% duty on Chinese goods worth $160 billion starting on December 15, saying that it is better to conclude a trade agreement after the presidential election. In addition, Trump announced his intention to introduce duties on goods from France to 100% worth $2.4 billion, which was the reason for the trial with Airbus - subsidizing the company. The European Commission replied that the EU would act in a consolidated manner against the United States. A widespread trade war erupts.

The US stock index S&P 500 lost 0.66% yesterday, gold rose 1.03%, and the yield on 5-year US government bonds fell from 1.64% to 1.54%. Correlations are completely crisis, but the dollar index lost 0.14%. It seems that yesterday there was a reflex growth of counter-dollar currencies on the news regarding China, without taking into account the whole political picture. Such a desynchronization cannot last long; we are waiting for correlations to recover today.

On the daily chart, the price is stuck in the convergence of the lines, the Marlin oscillator is turning down. The probability of growth to the Fibonacci level of 110.0% (1.1155) remains, but it is already small.

On the four-hour chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is decreasing, but still in the growth zone. The price is above the lines of balance and MACD. The first signal for a fall will be the price drift below the MACD line, approximately at the level of 1.1038. By this time, Marlin will already be in the bears' zone. We are currently waiting for the development of events, it is too early to sell.