FX.co ★ EUR/USD Hot Forecast , 11 August

EUR/USD remains sidelined around five-month lows above 1.1700 ahead of the US inflation report. The pair defends the 1.1700 threshold, as bears take a breather amid a steady US dollar and the cautious market mood. Firmer Treasury yields could cap the upside attempts.

From a technical perspective, the bias remains tilted in favour of bearish traders in the wake of the recent break below a short-term ascending trend-line extending from September 2020 swing lows. That said, the lack of strong follow-through selling warrants some caution, making it prudent to wait for sustained weakness below the 1.1700 mark before positioning for any further depreciating move. The pair might then accelerate the fall towards intermediate support near the 1.1665-60 region en-route November 2020 swing lows, around the 1.1600 round figure.

On the flip side, attempted recovery moves might now confront resistance near the mentioned ascending trend-line support breakpoint, around mid-1.1700s. Any subsequent positive move might be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the 1.1800 mark. This is followed by resistance near the 1.1830-35 region, which if cleared decisively might trigger a short-covering move. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 1.1880 supply zone ahead of the 1.1900 mark. A sustained strength beyond might negate the bearish bias and allow the pair to aim back to reclaim the key 1.2000 psychological mark.