FX.co ★ EUR / USD: what signals Mario Draghi will give the euro?

The results of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) will be announced today.

Since interest rate changes are not expected at this time, the attention of market participants is likely to be focused on the comments of the ECB President Mario Draghi.

First, new eurozone GDP and inflation forecasts will be announced. If they are revised downward, the euro against the dollar will have to be adjusted lower. The likelihood of such a scenario is now estimated at a level above the average.

Another important point is the timing of interest rate increases. Mario Draghi promised to be puzzled by this issue after the summer of 2019. If new specifics come from the head of the ECB, this will allow the market to relate its expectations to the regulator's plans and take into account in the EUR/USD quotes.

In addition, the hot topic at the current meeting of the ECB promises to be the issue of the resumption of long-term refinancing operations (LTRO).

More clarity appears in this matter, then the more it will affect the euro.

If the regulator does not announce a new credit line this week, the EUR/USD may rise to 1.14. If the head of the ECB announces the approach of a new round of LTRO and that the details will be presented in April, the euro may first subsist and then quickly stabilize, since this scenario does not exceed the bearish expectations. If, however, it is announced that new loans will be granted to banks with a maturity of 3 to 4 years, then the EUR / USD pair can test its November minimum around the 1.1215 mark. However, if it announces that new loans will be granted to banks with a maturity of 3 to 4 years, then the EUR / USD pair can test its November minimum around the 1.1215 mark.