FX.co ★ Forecast for GBP/USD for February 12, 2019

GBP/USD

On Monday, the release of data on the British economy disappointed as soon as it could. GDP for the 4th quarter grew by 0.2% against expectations of 0.3%, December's GDP fell by -0.4% against the forecast of 0.0%, the trade balance for December showed a negative balance of -12.1 billion pounds against the forecast of -12.0 billion, and the November figure was revised to deterioration from -12.0 billion to -12.4 billion pounds. Industrial production in December shrank by -0.5% against expectations for a growth of 0.1%. As a result, the pound lost 89 points in the market.

On the daily chart, the price went below the Krusenstern indicator trend line, on the four-hour chart the price continues to fall below the balance line (red indicator), but formed upward convergence with the Marlin. This circumstance preserves the possibility of a correction to the consolidation range of 1.2930/75. A reason for this correction could come from today's speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney on the prospects of economic instability and trade tensions in the world. Later, at 16:45 London time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on the topic of economic development in agricultural communities. The lack of optimistic incentives may send the price to the target level of 1.2784. Consolidating below it unfolds a scenario of a decline to 1.2617.