FX.co ★ EUR/USD Hot Forecast for 28 May

• EUR/USD keeps a tight range around 1.2200.
• ECB's Lagarde will take centre stage later in the session.
• US Core PCE, Biden's Budget will be in the limelight later.

EUR/USD now alternates gains with losses around the 1.2200 area after testing once again the key support in the 1.2170 region earlier in the session.

The range-bound theme in spot follows the broader consolidation in the global markets against the backdrop of the pick-up in yields on both sides of the Atlantic. In fact, yields of US 10-year Treasuries manage to surpass the 1.60% level, while yields of the German 10-year Bund rebounded to -0.16%.

EUR/USD recorded new 4-month highs near 1.2270 earlier in the week before coming under some selling pressure to the 1.2200 neighbourhood. With MACD momentum holding a clear bearish divergence the threat of a top remains. Below 1.2160/59 would see this confirmed to clear the way for a fresh swing lower within the broader range of the past few months

We would see support at 1.2134 initially ahead of 1.2108/03 and then 1.2053/51 – the mid-May low and 38.2% retracement of the March/May rally and 'measured top objective'. Our bias would then be to look for a fresh and ideally important floor here.

Resistance stays seen at 1.2216/17 initially, above which is needed to ease the immediate downside bias, with a break above 1.2241 needed to ease the topping threat for a move back to 1.2264/67. Above here can reassert the uptrend for a test of 1.2322/1.2350