FX.co ★ Retail sales in the US can strengthen the dollar

EUR / USD

The main event in the past three days was the US missile strike on Syria that happened on Saturday night. While on Monday, the market had an absolutely neutral reaction to this event. The United States and Britain issued about 105 Tomahawk-type missiles in Syria, 71 missiles were shot down by Syrian air defense forces. Perhaps, the market reaction was neutral due to the small number of devastations in the vicinity of Damascus, as well as minimal victims, with three were reportedly died. Nevertheless, the large-scale military strike gives direction to all US foreign policy and financial markets. Probably, the markets are waiting for some explanations from the monetary authorities. Only a number of crypto-currencies, such as fear indicators showed growth on weekends.

The eurozone's trade balance in February based on Friday's reports showed an increased from 20.2 billion euros to 21.0 billion, versus expectations of 20.2 billion. In the United States, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in April showed a decrease to 97.8 from 101.4 item.

On Friday, the representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank Eric Rosengren and James Bullard will have their speeches and at their opinions. E. Rosengren spoke out for four rate increases this year, while J. Bullard was against the sudden increase. The issue of forming a coalition government in Italy has not been resolved. According to rumors, Italian President Sergio Mattarella can assign this function to Matteo Salvini, head of the League of the North, but this one could have a negative impact on the single European currency.

Today, the focus may be on the US retail sales for March. The overall index is expected to grow by 0.4% against the February figure of -0.1%. Base sales are projected to increase by 0.2%, same in the previous month. Inventories of companies in February are expected to grow by 0.6%. The business activity index in the housing market from NAHB can grow from 70 to 71. Only the business activity index in the manufacturing sector of New York in April assessment can show a decrease from 22.5 to 19.8. In the evening, representatives of the Federal Reserve Bank Robert Kaplan, Neel Kashkari, and Raphael Bostic will speak. Bostic will talk about the economic issue at the Alabama Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Traditionally, Bostic maintains a neutral position due to the rapid rate hikes against the background of balance reduction in the Fed. Because this can critically accelerate the inflation growth. Therefore, shifting his emphasis to the "hawkish" side will make it possible to clarify the real intention of the Fed.

We are waiting for the euro at 1.2250. Tomorrow, we expect weak sentiment in the business circles of the eurozone ZEW.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.