FX.co ★ Euro loses strength

EUR / USD pair

On Wednesday, the dollar index had a sharp slow decline as the euro closed the day by 12 points growth. Retail sales in Italy for February increased by 0.4% against the forecast of 0.3%. Mario Draghi was moderately optimistic in his speech before the student audience in the assessment of both the prospects for inflation and the consequences of trade wars. In the US, the consumer price index in the March estimate fell by 0.1% vs. the forecast of 0.0%, but the base CPI added the expected 0.2%. Worse than the forecast was the US budget deficit of -208.7 billion dollars against -191.0 billion. Nonetheless, investors ignored this indicator since it was a March figure and in April the budget always shows a surplus in connection with tax revenues. More attention was drawn to the protocol from the last FOMC meeting of the Fed. The document, as we expected, was indeed straightened out in a more hawkish style.

Today, the industrial production in the euro area for the February assessment will be released at 9:00 London time. The forecast expects an increase of 0.1%, but since the data for France and Italy were worse than expected, the general index is also likely to be weaker than the forecast. At 11:30 London time, minutes will be published from the last ECB meeting. It is expected that the protocols will be neutral, which is leveled by Ewald Nowotny's recent announcement of an interest rate hike soon after the completion of the QE program.

In the United States, the weekly number of applications for unemployment benefits is expected at 231,000 against the previous figure of 242,000. Import prices for March are expected to grow by 0.2% after 0.4% in February. Since we are waiting for a lateral market move to clarify the situation in Syria, the euro could fall to 1.2320 being under pressure while we wait for a lateral market move to clarify the situation in Syria. In case the situation has worsened, a decrease to 1.2250 is possible.