FX.co ★ Fundamental Analysis of EUR/CAD for July 6, 2018

EUR/CAD has been slightly bullish recently trying to break above 1.5350 area with a daily close. CAD has been the dominant currency in the pair recently which is expected to continue further as per market condition and context of economic reports published.

EUR has been struggling with the BREXIT and recently formed Trade War tensions for which it is underperforming in certain segments. This week EUR has been quite mixed with the economic reports which helped the currency to sustain the momentum but it was not as impulsive as expected earlier. Today EUR German Industrial Production report was published with an increase to 2.6% from the previous negative value of -1.3% which was expected to be at 0.3%, French Trade Balance showed further decrease to -6.0B from the previous figure of -5.2B which was expected to be at -5.1B and Italian Retail Sales also showed certain increase to 0.8% from the previous value of -0.6% which was expected to be at 0.4%.

On the other hand, today CAD high impact economic reports are going to be published which is expected to inject certain volatility in the pair. Today CAD Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to significantly increase to 22.3k from the previous figure of -7.5k, Trade Balance is expected to decrease to -2.2B from the previous figure of -1.9B and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%.

As of the current scenario, ahead of the CAD high impact economic reports, EUR has been quite mixed with the results though capable of sustaining the bullish momentum but not quite to stop an impulsive counter. To sum up, if CAD economic reports perform well today with better than expected or equal as expected then CAD is expected to continue its gains over EUR further in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the 1.5350 area but inside the Kumo Cloud resistance which does provide a certain indication of price pushing lower in the coming days. Apart from it, the price has developed certain Bearish Divergence pressure which is also providing an indication of further bearish momentum in the pair. As the price remains below 1.55 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.