FX.co ★ Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for June 26, 2018

GBP/USD has been quite corrective and volatile below 1.3320 area while trying to retest after the break below the area with a daily close. The pound sterling has been struggling to gain momentum over USD recently that made the price to sink much lower in the process.

Today, Bank of England officials Haskei and McCafferty are going to speak about the key interest rate and the regulator's plans on further monetary policy. Their remarks are likely to have a neutral impact on the GBP gains over USD. On the back of persistent trade jitters, UK Finance Minister Phillip Hammond said that the full-blown trade war will be a disaster for any country involved, but US economy is going to suffer the most negative impact of the situation. He also uttered that the UK will be always open for trades and with none to low tariffs. Moreover, today the CBI is due to release a retail sales volume balance which is expected to decrease to 10 from the previous figure of 11.

On the USD side, today US CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight decrease to 127.6 from the previous figure of 128.0. Moreover, S&P C/S Composite 20 HPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 6.9% from the previous value of 6.8%, and Richmond Manufacturing Index report is expected to decrease to 15 from the previous figure of 16. Besides, FOMC policymaker Bostic is going to speak about interest rate decisions and further monetary policy.

As for the current scenario, USD is expected dominate GBP further in the coming days as the UK economy may struggle a bit more before it finally starts to take charge. Amid the long-lasting trade dispute between the US and its trade partners, certain volatility and unexpected situations may occur but USD is expected to have an upper hand.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently holding below the resistance area of 1.3320 area from where it is expected to drop much lower towards 1.3050 area in the coming days. As the dynamic level of 20 EMA is holding the price as resistance below the resistance area, the confluence is expected to keep pushing the price lower according to the market sentiment. As the price remains below 1.3320 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.