FX.co ★ Trading plan for 22/06/2018

USD is continuing a landslide, started on Thursday afternoon, although the changes at night are small. Positive information about the US-China trade dispute is helping currencies, but Asian stock markets are down on Wall Street. Nervousness does not leave the oil market before the OPEC summit.

A sudden retreat from USD from Thursday today has its light continuation. NZD, NOK and SEK perform best. EUR / USD goes above 1.1630, GBP / USD continues to rebound to 1.3270 indirectly with the help of the hawkish tone of Thursday's BoE decision.

The stock market in Asia dropped to 6-month lows following the Thursday's sell-off on Wall Street. Japanese Nikkei225 is losing 0.7%, but the Chinese Shanghai Composite managed to eventually ride towards the neutral 0.0% level under the influence of information about possible USD-China negotiations.

On Friday 22nd of June, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. During the London session, the PMI Manufacturing, Services and Composite data will be releases from France, Germany and Eurozone. Then, during the New York session, Canada will post Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index data and the US will present ISM Manufacturing data, Composite PMI data and Final Services PMI data.

USD/JPY analysis for 22/06/2018:

The US data turned out to be weaker than expected, but still solid. The values of the Fed's Philadelphia Index turned out to be weaker than expected. The index level in the processing sector was 19.9 points. The figures surprised the economists who forecast 34.3 points. The price level dropped by over 3 points, from 36.4 last month to 33.2 points in June. Unemployment in the US fell by 3,000, to 218,000 against the forecast of 220,000.

Friday is the day of publishing PMI data from the service and industrial sectors. Forecasts on the value of indicators from France, Germany, the Eurozone and the US do not differ much from the figures received last month, so their impact on the market behavior might be limited unless there is a big surprise in either direction.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has failed to rally above the technical resistance at the level of 110.76 and fell down towards the level of 109.83, which is now an intraday support. The momentum remains weak and the RSI indicator points to the south again, so any violation of the level of 109.83 would lead to another slide towards the key technical support at the level of 109.54.