FX.co ★ Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for June 21, 2018

EUR/AUD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which lead the price higher towards 1.5750 after a bearish breakout earlier. EUR gained momentum over AUD despite the dovish rhetoric, expressed by the ECB recently.

Today, the Euro group meeting was held along with German Buba President's speech which positively impacted the market sentiment on EUR. Buba President Weidmann stated that despite certain challenges of monetary policy recently, the eurozone's regulator is going to overcome headwinds soon and inflation should steadily accelerate from 1.1% to 1.9% by 2020. Though in the period from 2018 to 2020 consumer inflation can be flat at 1.7% for price stability. Moreover, today Consumer Confidence report was published with a decrease to -1 which was expected to be unchanged at 0.

On the other hand, this week Australia had nothing to offer with a strong impact on the market. The Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia ended with the same rhetoric. The Board confirmed that the domestic economy benefits from the policy of low interest rates. But it was not quite enough to impact the current market condition.

As for the current scenario, EUR is expected to gain and sustain the bullish momentum in the pair until Australia releases upbeat economic reports in the coming days. Meanwhile, certain indecision and correction may be observed in the currency pair that is expected to be short-lived.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing just below the event area of 1.5750 from where a daily close above the area is expected to lead to further bullish gains with a target towards 1.60 area in the future. Though before turning more bullish, the price may reject off the 1.5750 for a bearish retracement towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA and then breaking above 1.5750 to push higher in the coming days.