FX.co ★ Global macro overview for 21/06/2018

We are closer to the holiday stagnation, which today may disturb the decisions of the three central banks of developed economies, although expectations for them are not excessive.

In Switzerland, the SNB is holding a quarterly meeting, but the regulator could easily take a break at least until the middle of next year. Despite the improvement in inflation data that went higher than expected recently and stays on the highest levels in seven years (1.0% YoY in May) and GDP (2.2% YoY in Q1), the bank has other issues on its head. The Italian political crisis stopped the depreciation of the franc and pulled EUR/CHF from 1.20 back to 1.15. Hence the SNB will certainly uphold fears that the franc is "highly valued". Finally, the SNB will do nothing before the ECB gives the first signal to normalize interest rates, and after the super-lasting result of the ECB meeting last week, it can be expected that the SNB will also abstain from hikes for at least a year.

The SNB is expected to hold the Libor Rate at -0.75%, with the lower target range at -1.25% and higher target range at -0.25%. The decision is scheduled at 07:30 am GMT, together with SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and Press Conference.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. Just before the SNB interest rate decision the market remains locked inside of the channel as the breakout above the long-term trend line around the level of 1.1650 has failed. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of 1.1656 - 1.1640 and the nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1486 - 1.1463. Momentum remains neutral and if the SNB will decide to leave the rates unchanged as expected, the price should continue to consolidate in the range.