FX.co ★ Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for June 18, 2018

EUR/USD has been quite corrective today, starting the trading day started with a small gap. Though the price has been quite impulsive amid the recent bearish pressure, bulls have not entered the market yet.

After the recent Federal Rate hike from 1.75% to 2.00%, the market pushed impulsively towards USD side while ECB is expected to upgrade its outlook on the eurozone's economy this week. Besides, ECB President Draghi is going to speak about the key interest rate and monetary policy. His speech is expected to make a hawkish impact on the trading sentiment. Today, Italian Trade Balance report was published with a decrease to 2.94B from the previous figure of 4.53B which was expected to be at 3.21B. Despite the worse economic report, EUR was propped up by the German Buba monthly report which contains some upbeat readings for the eurozone.

On the USD side, today FOMC Member Bostic is going to speak whose speech is likely to be of little importance for USD gains today whereas Fed Chair Powell is going to have a talk whose remarks are expected to have a good impact on further USD gains against EUR.

As for the current scenario, EUR is expected to recover for a while ahead of ECB President Draghi's speech as market sentiment is currently leaning towards EUR amid hawkish expectations from the event. On the other hand, Fed Chair Powell is also expected to make a certain impact on USD gains which is more likely. To sum up, EUR is expected to gain short-term momentum over USD whereas USD is expected to continue its trend in the future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing just above 1.1550 support area from where certain bullish gain is expected to push the price higher towards 1.1720 in the coming days. As the long-term trend is bearish, the price is expected to continue pushing lower with target towards 1.10 in the future. As the price remains below 1.1720 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue though certain correction and bullish intervention may be observed along the way.