Colombia Holds Rate at 9.5%

In March, the Central Bank of Colombia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 9.5%. This decision saw support from four directors, while three advocated for a reduction of 50 basis points. After holding steady at 5.2% for several months, annual inflation slightly rose to 5.3% in February. However, core inflation eased to 4.21%, influenced by reductions in food processing and regulated prices, despite sustained high service costs at 7%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.4% in the fourth quarter, and January's Industrial and Service Indicator (ISE) reflected a 2.5% annual increase, prompting the technical team to revise the 2025 growth forecast upwards from 2.6% to 2.8%. Nonetheless, exchange rate volatility—driven by global financial conditions tightening, a strengthening dollar, and Colombia's fiscal uncertainties—has amplified inflationary risks, restricting the potential for substantial rate cuts. The labor market remained robust, featuring increased employment and declining unemployment figures. The central bank highlighted that future rate determinations would rely on forthcoming economic data.