The introduction of COVID-19 vaccines will boost the dying crude demand, believe International Energy Agency (IEA) analysts. This effect, however, will not manifest immediately but in several months.
According to IEA, the coronavirus vaccination that started in December 2020 will not be able to make up quickly for the damage done to the global hydrocarbon demand. Right now the oil market is taking losses, but it is believed at IEA that mass vaccination may help bring the market back.
The Agency warns of a highly probable next COVID-19 outburst and stricter lockdowns, ahead of Christmas and New Year holidays.
This year, the Agency downgraded the oil demand forecast by 50 kbpd, with a 170 kbpd cut for the year 2021. The IEA warns of a drop in demand for jet fuel as the number of flights diminishes. Europe is mainly to blame for low oil demand. Renewed lockdowns are expected to curtail the demand in the 4th quarter of 2020.
According to the IEA outlooks, by July 2021 the global oil reserves will reach deficit levels compared to the pre-crisis figures in late 2019.