The price test at 1.0849 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to decline from the zero mark, confirming a favorable entry point for selling the euro. This led to a 25-pip drop in the pair, after which the pressure on the euro eased.
Currently, EUR/USD is moving sideways within a narrow channel while waiting for new catalysts. Market participants are focused on macroeconomic indicators, which, unfortunately, are lacking today. The European Central Bank is likely to continue its stance toward monetary policy easing, which will limit the pair's upward potential. Therefore, it is important to pay attention to speeches from representatives of the ECB.
Today, a meeting of EU finance ministers is scheduled to take place, and no other significant events are anticipated. This makes it unlikely for the EUR/USD to break out of its current range. Traders should exercise caution and consider multiple scenarios, as the existing overbought conditions could eventually lead to a substantial downward correction.
For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the 1.0855 area (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.0893. At 1.0893, I will exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Euro growth in the first half of the day can be expected to continue the upward trend. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.0828 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0855 and 1.0893 can be expected.
Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0828 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0794, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return today if an attempt to rise above the daily high fails. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.0855 twice a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0828 and 1.0794 can be expected.
