The price test at 152.26 occurred when the MACD indicator had already dropped significantly below the zero mark, which limited the dollar's downside potential. For this reason, I decided not to sell the dollar and missed the downward movement.
Weak U.S. jobless claims data, released the previous day, raised concerns among investors, negatively impacting the dollar's position. Many analysts view this as a potential sign of an economic slowdown and a deteriorating labor market. Following the release of the data, the dollar began to weaken as investors turned to safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen.
Recently, the yen has attracted increased interest from traders, especially as the Bank of Japan continues to raise interest rates, while Federal Reserve officials have started discussing a more accommodative monetary policy. If this divergence in monetary policy continues to widen, these trends could push the USD/JPY lower.
For intraday trading, I will primarily focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY at 151.90 (green line on the chart), targeting 152.50 (thicker green line on the chart). At 152.50, I will exit long positions and initiate a short trade in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback. Buying USD/JPY is best done during corrections and significant pullbacks. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if 151.55 is tested twice in succession, with MACD in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential, triggering an upward market reversal. Expected targets for this scenario are 151.90 and 152.50.
Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below 151.55 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The primary bearish target is 151.00, where I will exit short positions and immediately enter a buy trade in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip rebound. Selling pressure on the pair is expected to persist today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I will also sell USD/JPY if 151.90 is tested twice in succession, with MACD in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential, leading to a downward reversal. Expected downside targets are 151.55 and 151.00.
