In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0421 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to analyze what happened. A breakout and retest of this level provided an excellent entry point for selling the euro. At the time of writing, the pair had already dropped by over 30 points from the entry point. The technical outlook for the second half of the day has been revised.
Amid a lack of significant statistics, the euro was quickly brought back down, casting doubt on further upward movement. In the second half of the day, focus will be on key data regarding the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, which could surprise the upside and support U.S. dollar buyers.
If strong data pushes the pair lower, only a false breakout around 1.0380, a support level formed last week, will provide a suitable condition for building long positions in anticipation of a return to 1.0413. A breakout and retest of this range, similar to the morning scenario, will confirm the validity of an entry point for buying, targeting a move towards 1.0446. The farthest target will be the 1.0476 maximum, where I plan to take profits.
In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and inactivity around 1.0380 in the second half of the day—likely to occur—the pressure on the pair will increase, leading to a more significant drop. In this case, I will only enter long positions after a false breakout around the weekly low and support at 1.0347. Immediate long positions can be opened on a rebound from 1.0308, targeting an upward correction of 30–35 points intraday.
For Opening Short Positions on EUR/USD:
If the euro rises on weak U.S. data, protecting the 1.0413 resistance will be a priority for sellers. A false breakout at this level will restore bearish momentum and provide a short entry point with the prospect of a decline to 1.0380. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a retest from below, will offer another opportunity to sell, aiming for the 1.0347 low, which would undermine any buyer plans for further corrections. The farthest target will be the 1.0308 level, where I plan to take profits.
If EUR/USD moves higher in the second half of the day and bears fail to act at 1.0413, where moving averages currently favor sellers, I'll postpone short positions until the next resistance at 1.0446. I'll sell there only after a failed consolidation. Immediate short positions can be opened on a rebound from 1.0476, targeting a downward correction of 30–35 points.
In the December 10 COT report, an increase in short positions and a decrease in long positions was observed. However, the overall market balance remained unchanged. The Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year is approaching, where a decision to reduce interest rates is likely to be made, sustaining demand for risk assets while capping the dollar's growth.
According to the COT report:
Long non-commercial positions fell by 10,318 to 157,375.Short non-commercial positions increased by 7,766 to 232,948.The net position gap widened by 4,450.Moving Averages:
Trading near the 30- and 50-day moving averages indicates a sideways market.
Note: Moving average periods and prices are based on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the traditional daily D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands:
The lower boundary of the indicator at 1.0398 acts as support in case of a decline.
Indicator Description:Moving Average (MA): Smoothens price volatility and noise.Period: 50 (yellow on the chart)Period: 30 (green on the chart)MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):Fast EMA: 12Slow EMA: 26SMA: 9Bollinger Bands: Period 20Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.Long positions represent total open long positions.Short positions represent total open short positions.Net position: Difference between short and long positions.