On Wednesday, the pound gained 21 pips despite the U.S. dollar index strengthening by 0.26%. While this upward move shows potential, it remains unpromising, as U.S. inflation data and the Bank of Canada's rate decision are expected today. The November U.S. CPI is forecast to rise from 2.6% YoY to 2.7% YoY, while the Bank of Canada is anticipated to lower its rate from 3.75% to 3.25%.
On the daily chart, the pound continues to encounter resistance at the balance line (red) and the 34-period simple moving average (green). The Marlin oscillator has slowed its ascent and shows signs of a potential reversal. A significant market event is required for the price to break into the target range of 1.2816/47. However, no news is scheduled during the European session.
On the 4-hour chart, the upward momentum remains intact. The price consolidates above the balance line, supported by rising indicator lines. The Marlin oscillator has rebounded from the zero line, signaling a new wave of growth.
For the bears, one scenario hinges on Marlin potentially consolidating near the neutral zero line. If so, and if evening data supports it, a technical picture of the price breaking downward from consolidation could emerge. A move below 1.2708, reinforced by the MACD Line, would confirm this bearish scenario.