The test of the 1.0513 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point to sell the euro along the downtrend. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 40 pips, reaching the target level of 1.0478.
This morning, significant economic data is expected, which could strongly influence market direction. The key releases include figures on Germany's GDP, the manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and the composite PMI for the Eurozone. If the data confirms negative expectations, it could lead to further declines in the euro against major global currencies. Traders are also likely to reassess their positions and look for safer assets, such as the US dollar or gold.
Today's data will provide a significant opportunity to assess the Eurozone economy's actual state and resilience to external shocks. For intraday strategy, I plan to focus primarily on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, outlined below.
Scenario 1:
Buy the euro today at the 1.0480 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.0511. Exit the market at 1.0511 and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip movement from the entry point. Consider an upward move in the euro today in the first half of the day only if the reports are positive and within the framework of a corrective upward trend. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario 2:
Also, consider buying the euro today if the price tests the 1.0461 level twice in a row and the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger an upward reversal. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0480 and 1.0511.
Sell ScenariosScenario 1:
Plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0461 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0433. Exit the market at 1.0433 and consider buying immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip movement from the level. Selling at higher levels is preferable to maximize returns. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario 2:
Also, consider selling the euro today if the price tests the 1.0480 level twice in a row and the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0461 and 1.0433.