The price test at 1.0541 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which, in my view, limited the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro and stayed out of trades.
Analyzing the current situation, today's dovish rhetoric from ECB representatives appears to have increased volatility in the currency market. Market participants are increasingly factoring in the likelihood of continued monetary easing from the ECB, suggesting the euro may remain under pressure. Expectations of interest rate cuts have heightened concerns about the economic situation in the Eurozone. Indicators of economic activity, particularly in manufacturing, show a slowdown, raising doubts about the ECB's ability to address inflation risks. In these conditions, investors shift to safer assets, placing additional pressure on the euro. The Federal Reserve's current policy, despite recession fears, also suggests it may refrain from further interest rate cuts.
This afternoon, key data will include initial unemployment claims, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and speeches from FOMC members Ostan D. Goolsbee and Beth M. Hammack. A drop in unemployment claims is a positive signal for the US economy and can significantly strengthen the dollar. Positive labor market data could prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates in December. My intraday strategy will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1:Buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.0534 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0569. At 1.0569, I plan to exit and reverse the position to sell, aiming for a 30-35 point move. Significant growth in the euro is unlikely without dovish statements from Federal Reserve representatives.Note: Before buying, verify that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2:I will also consider buying the euro after two consecutive tests of the 1.0513 price, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This should limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expected resistance levels are 1.0534 and 1.0569.
Sell SignalScenario #1:Sell the euro if the price reaches 1.0513 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0478, where I plan to exit and reverse the position to buy, aiming for a 20-25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair will return if Federal Reserve representatives adopt a hawkish stance.Note: Before selling, verify that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2:I will also consider selling the euro after two consecutive tests of the 1.0534 price, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal, targeting support levels at 1.0513 and 1.0478.
For beginners in Forex trading, it is crucial to make decisions carefully. Before major economic reports, it is advisable to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders, especially with large volumes, can quickly deplete your account. A clear trading plan, like the one provided above, is essential for success. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions often lead to losses for intraday traders.