Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 155.86 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid sell entry for the dollar, resulting in a 30-pip decline in the pair. However, the target level was not reached. Today's data on Japan's industrial production growth was offset by a poor service activity index report, maintaining pressure on the yen and demand for the U.S. dollar. Considering that the pair is trading within an uptrend, I will use corrections, likely to occur more frequently given the oversold condition of the Japanese yen, as opportunities to buy. I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for intraday strategies.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at 156.55 (green line on the chart) with a target of 157.05 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.05, I plan to exit purchases and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a reversal of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expect the pair to rise, but it's best to buy on corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone and the pair tests the 156.25 level twice consecutively. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth toward the 156.55 and 157.05 levels can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below the 156.25 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.73, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a reversal of 20–25 pips. Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 156.55 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the 156.25 and 155.73 levels can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.