Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The test of the 1.0553 level occurred when the MACD indicator was already well above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential, especially in such a bearish market. For this reason, I avoided buying the euro. No other entry points were formed. News of rising inflation in the U.S. and statements from the Federal Reserve Chair about the lack of urgency to quickly lower rates renewed pressure on the euro and strengthened the dollar.
Today, the euro may dip further in the first half of the day following weak data on Italy's Consumer Price Index and France's CPI. The economic forecast from the European Commission will also be of interest. Lower projections may increase pressure on the euro, keeping the pair within the bearish trend. For intraday strategies, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.0550 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.0588. At 1.0588, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a reversal of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expect an increase in the euro today only if the reports are very strong, and even then, only as part of an upward correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0530 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. Growth toward the 1.0550 and 1.0588 levels can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0530 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0485, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a reversal of 20–25 pips from the level. Pressure on the pair could return at any moment, but selling from as high as possible is better. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0550 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the 1.0530 and 1.0485 levels can be expected.
Chart Indicators:
Thin Green Line – Entry price to buy the instrument.
Thick Green Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin Red Line – Entry price to sell the instrument.
Thick Red Line – Suggested price level for setting Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator – When entering the market, consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders should exercise caution when entering the market. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You may quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if trading large volumes without proper money management.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the above example. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.