Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.0827 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator began rising from the zero line, confirming a strong entry point. As a result, the pair rose over 30 points. The second half of the day promises to be even more eventful than the first due to the release of U.S. Q3 GDP growth data. If the data is weak, the euro could rise further. Additionally, reports on U.S. ADP employment change and the core personal consumption expenditures index will be released. A strong labor market report could favor purchases of the U.S. dollar. For intraday strategy, I'll primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1, as I expect strong, directional movement following the data release.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Consider buying the euro today if the price reaches the 1.0851 level (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise toward 1.0905. At 1.0905, I plan to exit the market and potentially sell the euro in anticipation of a 30–35-point drop from the entry point. Strong euro growth this afternoon depends on very weak U.S. statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0820 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth toward the 1.0851 and 1.0905 levels can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0820 (red line on the chart), targeting the 1.0773 level, where I'll exit and buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point reversal from the level). The pair is likely to come under renewed pressure today if U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its descent.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0851 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and prompt a market reversal downward. Expect a decline toward the opposite levels: 1.0820 and 1.0773.
Chart Key:
Thin green line – entry price for buying the asset.Thick green line – projected price to set Take Profit or manually fix profit, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price for selling the asset.Thick red line – projected price to set Take Profit or manually fix profit, as further declines beyond this level are unlikely.MACD Indicator: In trading, be guided by overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise caution in making market entry decisions. To avoid sharp price fluctuations, it's best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading with large volumes and without proper money management.
And remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, like the example I've provided here. Making impulsive trading decisions based on immediate market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.