On Tuesday, the euro successfully tested the target support level of 1.0777 and, with that milestone achieved, began an upward movement toward the target of 1.0882, where it will likely pause ahead of the U.S. presidential election. Afterward, there are two possible scenarios, regardless of the election outcome: the euro could break above 1.0950 and 1.1010 to eliminate middle players selling the euro expecting a Trump victory.
If Harris wins, it could be an external cover for such a speculative move. The second scenario suggests dollar strengthening without a false upward movement, as neither candidate opposes a stronger dollar. However, these plans will unfold in a more complex correlation structure, particularly given the uncertainty around the stock market's reaction post-election. We expect a rise to new record highs initially following one candidate's victory, followed by a potential large-scale market decline for objective reasons.
The price reversed from the MACD line yesterday on the four-hour chart and has now consolidated above the balance line. The Marlin oscillator is attempting to break out of its minor consolidation upward. We anticipate the price progressing toward 1.0882.