Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The test of the 1.2976 level occurred when the MACD indicator was already well above zero, which limited the pair's upward potential, especially given the lack of significant fundamental data. For this reason, I didn't buy the pound. A second test of this level shortly afterward found the MACD in the overbought zone, providing an opportunity to implement Scenario #2 for selling. However, as seen on the chart, the best outcome was to exit without significant losses. Later in the day, U.S. trade balance data and the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index will be released, with the consumer confidence index potentially sparking volatility. Strong data will bring renewed pressure on the pair, while weaker data could support the pound's rise. My intraday strategy will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the 1.2995 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting 1.3022 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3022, I plan to exit the long position and open a short position, anticipating a reversal of 30-35 points. Today's rise in the pound could sustain the morning's upward trend. Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the 1.2972 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD is in the oversold area. This should curb further downward and could lead to an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.2995 and 1.3022 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after breaking through the 1.2972 level (red line on the chart), which is likely to trigger a quick decline in the pair. Sellers' main target will be 1.2944, where I will exit the short position and immediately enter a long position, expecting a rebound of 20-25 points. Sellers are likely to become active if the pair fails to break through the daily high. Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and just starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2995 level while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.2972 and 1.2944 can be expected.
Chart Key:
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD: when entering the market, it's crucial to consider overbought and oversold levels.Important: Beginner forex traders should exercise caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to manage risk. Trading without stop orders can lead to rapid losses, especially if you don't practice money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one I've provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is generally an unprofitable strategy for an intraday trader.