Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
Testing the 153.15 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar, especially considering the substantial Asian rally and subsequent correction. Unfortunately, there's no U.S. economic data for the second half of the day, so it will be challenging to expect large dollar buyers to re-enter the market. However, the stronger the correction, the greater the chances for bulls to return. For my intraday strategy, I'll primarily focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching an entry point around 152.95 (green line on the chart) with a target rise to the 153.47 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.47, I'll exit my buy positions and open sell orders in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35 point reversal from that level). Any rise in the pair today will likely follow the upward trend. Note: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.45 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup may limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 152.95 and 153.47 is expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after it breaks below the 152.45 level (red line on the chart), leading to a quick drop in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 152.03, where I'll exit my sell positions and switch to a buy position (anticipating a 20-25 point reversal from that level). Selling pressure on the pair may remain through the end of the day. Note: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 152.95 level with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This setup will limit the pair's upward potential and may trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 152.45 and 152.03 is expected.
Chart Guide:
Thin Green Line – entry price to buy the trading instrument.Thick Green Line – target price for setting take-profit or manually closing positions to secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin Red Line – entry price to sell the trading instrument.Thick Red Line – target price for setting take-profit or manually closing positions to secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator – use the overbought and oversold zones to guide market entries.Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:
New traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop orders can lead to significant losses, especially if you lack a solid money management strategy and trade in large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.