Very few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but they could influence market sentiment. Yesterday, the euro and the pound showed slight growth, and the EUR/USD pair managed to hold above the trendline. Thus, it can be said that the trend is shifting towards an upward direction. If today's macroeconomic data from the U.S. are weak, the British pound may also break above the trendline, making the case for the euro and pound's growth more convincing. However, if the U.S. reports are strong, both pairs could quickly return to their "bottom." In that case, the trendline breakout for the euro will be deemed false. Today, the U.S. will release reports on durable goods orders and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. No significant reports are scheduled in the Eurozone or the UK.
Analysis of Fundamental Events:There are no significant fundamental events to note for Friday. No major speeches are planned for today, although several European Central Bank and Federal Reserve representatives have appeared throughout the week. Even Andrew Bailey spoke twice but didn't share anything particularly noteworthy with the market.
General Conclusions:On the week's final trading day, both the euro and the pound can resume their decline. Much will depend on today's U.S. data. So far, the euro and the pound have only shown minor depreciation, which cannot confirm the start of a short-term trend. The trendline breakout for the euro could prove to be false. We expect only a continued decline in the euro and the pound in the medium term. A correction may begin, but the pound must also break above the trendline for that to happen.
Basic Rules of the Trading System:The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (bounce or break through a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.If two or more trades were opened with false signals around a certain level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.In a flat market, any pair can generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.Trading should be done between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.On the hourly time frame, trade signals from the MACD indicator are best used when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or channel.If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips apart), consider them as a support or resistance zone.When the price moves 15-20 pips in the intended direction, set a Stop Loss to break even.What's on the Charts:Support and Resistance Price Levels: These levels serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. They can also be used as points to set Take Profit levels.
Red Lines: These represent channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): The histogram and signal line serve as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.
Important Speeches and Reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, trading should be done with maximum caution during their release, or you may choose to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
For Beginners Trading on the Forex Market: It's essential to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management is key to achieving long-term success in trading.