Analysis of Deals and Trading Tips for the Euro
The test of the 1.0859 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential—especially in such low volatility conditions. For this reason, I chose not to buy the euro. The second test of 1.0859 came shortly after when the MACD was in the overbought area, allowing for executing Scenario #2 for selling. However, as you can see from the chart, the pair did not experience a significant drop. Today, aside from Germany's Producer Price Index, there is no other fundamental data, making it unlikely that traders or the market will see significant movements or price changes in the first half of the day. In my opinion, the best strategy remains trading within the channel, aiming for further euro recovery. For intraday trading, I will rely more on Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0875 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0916. At 1.0916, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Today, expecting the euro to rise is possible only as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0846 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposing levels of 1.0875 and 1.0916 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0846 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0811 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20-25 pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pair could return anytime, as the downtrend remains intact. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0875 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.0846 and 1.0811 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – the entry price to buy the trading instrument;
Thick green line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – the entry price to sell the trading instrument;
Thick red line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones.
Important:
Novice traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.