Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The test of the 1.0916 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I didn't buy the euro against the trend. I didn't get a second test of this level to sell, and I missed the pair's downward movement. Yesterday, the latest statements from Federal Reserve representatives did their job, renewing demand for the dollar. Today, we only have data on Italy's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in the first half of the day. It's unlikely that Lagarde will address future interest rates since the key decisions are expected tomorrow. Because of this, pressure on the euro may persist, continuing the downward trend. As for the intraday strategy, I'll focus more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the 1.0893 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0930. At 1.0930, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 pip movement from the entry point. The potential for a euro rise today in the first half of the day will likely be limited to a correction.
Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to move upward.
Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0873 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0893 and 1.0930 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0873 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0847, where I'll exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 pip movement from the level. Selling pressure on the pair will return if there is a failed attempt to rise above the daily high.
Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to move downward.
Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0893 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Declines to the opposite levels of 1.0873 and 1.0847 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – the entry price to buy the trading instrument;
Thick green line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – the entry price to sell the trading instrument;
Thick red line – the approximate price to set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones.
Important:
Novice traders in the Forex market should be cautious when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.