Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The price test at 1.0952 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Since the price had already fallen from this level earlier in the day, I decided not to wait for a second test of 1.0952 and sold the euro according to Scenario #2. As a result, the pair dropped by 15 points, and the movement ended there. U.S. producer price data came in lower than economists' forecasts, which harmed the dollar toward the end of the week, limiting its upward potential. Today, aside from a speech by ECB board member Joachim Nagel, no significant events are expected, so a strong trend movement in the euro is unlikely. It's better to continue trading within the sideways channel where the pair has been recently trading. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenario #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches the area of 1.0943 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the 1.0979 level. At 1.0979, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro afterward, aiming for a 30-35 point move from the entry point. Expecting a rise in the euro today is only possible as part of a correction. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0911 price, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0943 and 1.0979 is expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0911 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0874, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro afterward (aiming for a 20-25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if there is a failed attempt to rise beyond the daily high. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0943 price with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0911 and 1.0874 is expected.
Chart Explanations:
Thin green line: The entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.Thick green line: The suggested price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.Thin red line: The entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.Thick red line: The suggested price where you can set Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD indicator: When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important Note:Beginner traders in the forex market should exercise great caution when deciding to enter the market. It's advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp rate fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade in large volumes without proper money management.
And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is typically a poor strategy for intraday traders.