The test of the price at 1.3137 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pound's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy and remained out of the market. Data from the UK helped the pound, as the reports turned out to be much better than economists' forecasts. However, everything will depend on the figures from the U.S. Ahead are important unemployment data; the decline of which, along with strong growth in non-farm employment and an increase in employment in the private sector, will lead to the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of risk assets. In the case of weak indicators, the pound will continue to rise. Regarding my intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of Scenario No. 1, even despite the MACD indicators, as I expect a strong surge in market volatility.
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.3176 (green line on the chart), with a target growth to the level of 1.3220 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3220, I will exit my purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). A rise in the pound today can be expected after weak U.S. statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3158 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's bearish potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3176 and 1.3220 can be expected.
Sell SignalScenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level of 1.3158 is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3123, where I will exit my sales and also immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers will show themselves in case of strong statistics from the U.S. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3176 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's bullish potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3158 and 1.3123 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.