Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1075 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I didn't sell the euro. The second test, shortly afterward, occurred when the MACD was already in the oversold area, allowing for the execution of Scenario #2 for a buy trade, but significant growth did not follow. Weak data on the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI led to a drop in the euro in the first half of the day. The sell-off continued during the U.S. session after the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict. Today, unemployment data for the Eurozone is expected, but given the significant delay in its release, it's unlikely to support the euro. European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos and ECB Executive Board member Philip Lane are also speaking today. Their statements could put additional pressure on the euro in the first half of the day. I'll focus more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2 for the intraday strategy.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1080 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the 1.1109 level. At 1.1109, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expect a rise in the euro today during the first half of the day only if strong Eurozone data are released. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its upward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1054 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1080 and 1.1109.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1054 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1020 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if there is an unsuccessful attempt to break above the daily high and if weak data are released. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1080 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1054 and 1.1020.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.