EUR/USD
Higher time frames
The pair spent the week consolidating below the resistance of the upper boundary of the monthly Ichimoku cloud (1.1184). Monday marks the end of September, and the result is important. The bulls managed to update August's highest extreme but failed to consolidate above it and enter the bullish zone relative to the cloud. With the opening of October, the monthly boundary will change its position and become more accessible. After conquering the Senkou Span B, the main "watershed" of the Ichimoku indicator, the primary task for the bulls will be to update the 2023 high (1.1276). For the bears, in the current situation, the main focus should be to exit the consolidation and eliminate the daily golden cross (1.1141 – 1.1109 – 1.1084); afterward, their attention will shift to the daily cloud and weekly supports (1.0997 – 1.0982).
H4 – H1
The consolidation seen on higher time frames has led to the key levels of 1.1153 – 64 (central pivot level of the day + weekly long-term trend) being in a horizontal position on the lower time frames, maintaining adherence to uncertainty. Developing a directed movement will shift focus to other targets in the lower time frames. For example, the question of breaking through the H4 cloud (1.1096) may arise or using the supports and resistances of the classic pivot levels in trading. New values of pivot levels will appear with the market opening.
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GBP/USD
Higher time frames
Last week, the pair tested the psychological resistance level of 1.3400. Interaction with this level led to a slowdown and consolidation. A breakout will open the path to 1.3500, while a rebound will return the pair to the previously crossed 1.3300 level, reinforced by the daily short-term trend (1.3289). If the bears manage to take control of the short-term trend, their next task will be to eliminate the daily Ichimoku cross (1.3217 – 1.3166). Monday marks the end of September, and it will be interesting to see whether the bulls can hold their positions; perhaps the daily result will lead to an extension of the upper shadow on the monthly candle.
H4 – H1
The weekly long-term trend (1.3364) controls the situation on the lower time frames, helping the bulls maintain their advantage. A breakout of this trend and its reversal could shift the current balance in favor of increased bearish sentiment, as holding the trend provides a power advantage. For the development of a directed intraday movement, the supports and resistances of the classic pivot levels serve as guidelines, and attention is often drawn to the established targets for breaking through the H4 cloud. The values of the classic pivot levels will be updated when trading opens.
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In the technical analysis of the situation, the following were used:
Higher time frames: Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levelsLower time frames – H1: Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)