The Japanese business activity (PMI) data for September released this morning was mixed. The Manufacturing PMI weakened from 49.8 to 49.6, while the Services PMI strengthened from 53.7 to 53.9. As a result, investors did not lower their expectations for a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The USD/JPY pair is holding at the 143.60 level.
If the pair closes below this level today, it will heighten expectations of reaching the 139.70-140.27 range. Conversely, a close above this level will open the prospect of moving towards 146.50, although the price will also need to overcome Friday's peak of 144.50. The balance line is restraining the growth.
The signal line of the Marlin oscillator shows an intention to reverse from the upper boundary of the range.
On the four-hour chart, the price's attempts to rise above the 143.60 level were thwarted—both recent candles only breached the level with their shadows. The Marlin oscillator is attacking the zero line. The probability of today's trading day closing with a black (bearish) candle is over 60%.