Last Friday, the upper shadow of the euro's daily candle pierced the target level of 1.1085. It was a success, as the euro started today with growth. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator is still in negative territory, but once it enters the positive area, the euro will gain additional technical support for growth.
Marlin could cross into positive territory when the price surpasses Friday's high of 1.1071. Formally, this would open the target of 1.1186. However, four factors could hinder the development of this alternative scenario: today's weak data on the Eurozone's trade balance for July, with a forecast of €14.9 billion compared to €22.3 billion in June; tomorrow's expected drop in the ZEW economic sentiment index for September (forecast 16.4 compared to 17.9 previously) and the anticipated growth in U.S. industrial production for August by 0.1% (compared to -0.6% in July) along with a rise in core retail sales (0.2%); and on Wednesday, the week's main event—the Federal Reserve's rate decision. The fourth factor is the technical picture on the four-hour chart.
On the four-hour chart, the price aims for the upper boundary of the price channel at 1.1120. The Marlin oscillator has weakened but could still attempt to break out of the consolidation upward. If, on the contrary, the price consolidates below the 1.1085 level, it may drop toward the MACD line support at 1.1040. At this point, Marlin would reach the boundary of the downtrend territory. A break of 1.1040 would leave the price with almost no chance of returning to growth. The situation will likely be resolved by Wednesday evening.