Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound
The price test of 1.3145 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential—especially given the absence of important fundamental data and low trading volume observed during the U.S. session. For this reason, I did not buy the pound, and I was right, as the pair did not experience any significant growth. The data on the UK Manufacturing PMI supported the pound, but it was not enough to bring big players back into the market. Today, there is no data, so the main event of the European session will be the speech by the Bank of England's Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, Sarah Breeden. A dovish tone from her could negatively impact the positions of pound buyers. For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when it reaches the entry point at 1.3127, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to the level of 1.3164, plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. Around 1.3164, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 pips from the level. It is unlikely that we will see strong growth for the pound today. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.3097 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3127 and 1.3164.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after testing the level of 1.3097, plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in GBP/USD. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3072, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). You can sell the pound in the continuation of the downtrend. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive price tests of 1.3127 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3097 and 1.3072.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.