Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro
The test of the 1.1179 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the euro's upward potential, especially given the weak German GDP data that had not been revised upwards. Due to these factors, I chose not to buy the euro and remained out of the market. The second half of the day should be more interesting, as we expect relevant statistics, including the U.S. consumer confidence index and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Weak data could justify further selling of the dollar and buying of the euro, with the expectation of continuing the upward trend. A decline in the pair can only be expected if the statistics are very strong, significantly exceeding economists' forecasts, similar to what happened yesterday. For the intraday strategy, I plan to follow scenarios #1 and #2, continuing the trend.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.1180 (the green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the 1.1209 level. At 1.1209, I will exit the market and also sell the euro, anticipating a reversal of 30-35 points from the entry point. A strong upward move in the euro can be expected with very weak U.S. statistics. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1161 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise toward the resistance levels of 1.1180 and 1.1209 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1161 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1135 level, where I plan to exit the market. I will then immediately buy the euro, expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from this level. Pressure on the pair will return in the case of very strong U.S. statistics, but this is unlikely. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1180 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1161 and 1.1135 can be expected.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: The entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.Thick green line: The presumed price at which you can set a Take Profit or manually take profits, as growth beyond this level is unlikely.Thin red line: The entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.Thick red line: The presumed price at which you can set a Take Profit or manually take profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, it's advisable to use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation typically lead to losses for intraday traders.