Analysis of trades and tips on USD/JPY
The price test of 146.97 occurred when the MACD indicator started to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the USD/JPY pair dropped 60 pips. Today, caution is required as the dollar's decline on Friday was quickly bought back. Volatility will likely remain at a reasonably good level, allowing the dollar to rise further—especially before a series of important fundamental data expected this week. It is also important not to forget the potential speeches and statements from representatives of the Bank of Japan, which could smooth out the situation in the stock market and calm the forex market. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy signals
Scenario No. 1. Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the entry point around 147.35, plotted by the green line on the chart, with the goal of rising to 147.83 plotted by the thicker green line on the chart. At around 147.83, I will exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. You can expect the pair to rise today as part of the upward correction. But the higher the pair, the more attractive it is to sell the dollar. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise from it.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 147.04 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market upturn. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 147.35 and 147.83.
Sell signals
Scenario No. 1. I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after testing 147.04 plotted by the red line on the chart, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.57, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on USD/JPY may return at any moment, especially in case of unsuccessful correction in the first half of the day and failure to test the daily high. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario No. 2. I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive price tests at 147.35 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market downturn. One can expect a decline to the opposite level of 147.04 and 146.57.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market must be cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.