Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen
The test of the 149.86 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly up from the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test of this level coincided with the MACD indicator being in the overbought area, leading to the execution of Scenario #2 for selling the dollar further in the development of the downward trend. However, it did not lead to the usual large drop, with the maximum observed being 20 points. In the second half of the day, we await statistics on the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S., but more importantly, the ISM Manufacturing Index. A decline in this index will put pressure on the dollar and lead to a new sell-off in USD/JPY. Regarding the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 150.72 (the green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 151.69 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 151.69, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Counting on a strong rise in the pair today is unlikely. At best, the correction will continue after good U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 149.97 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 150.72 and 151.69.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 149.97 level is updated (the red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 148.80 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 points from the entry point. Pressure on the pair will return if it fails to break above 150.72. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 150.72 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 149.97 and 148.80.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: Entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.Thick green line: Expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be manually fixed, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line: Entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.Thick red line: Expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be manually fixed, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should make market entry decisions cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop-loss orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an initially losing strategy for an intraday trader.