In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.2899 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The decline and the formation of a false breakout there provided an excellent entry point for long positions, resulting in the pair rising by more than 50 points. The technical picture was slightly revised for the second half of the day.
For opening long positions on GBP/USD:
The absence of statistics helped the pound continue its growth from yesterday and even break out beyond the monthly high. In the second half of the day, the strengthening trend may persist due to weak reports on the US Producer Price Index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and inflation expectations. In the case of a correction in the pair, I prefer to act only after forming a false breakout around the new support at 1.2937, formed in the first half of the day. This will provide a good entry point for long positions with the prospect of updating the new high at 1.2974. A breakout and retest from top to bottom of this range will strengthen the pound's upward potential, leading to an entry point for long positions with the possibility of testing 1.3001. The ultimate target will be the area of 1.3032, where I will take profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD declining and a lack of bullish activity at 1.2937 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pair will increase by the end of the week. This will also lead to a decline and update of the next support at 1.2903, where the moving averages are located, playing on the bulls' side. However, this will not significantly harm the bullish market. The formation of a false breakout will be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the minimum of 1.2870, targeting a correction of 30-35 points within the day.
For opening short positions on GBP/USD:
Sellers have hardly tried today, fully handing over the initiative to buyers. Only in the case of very strong US statistics will we see a correction in the pair in the second half of the day. If the growth continues, I prefer to act on sales only after forming a false breakout around the new resistance at 1.2974, where the pair is now heading. This will be a suitable option for opening short positions targeting a decline to the support at 1.2937, formed in the first half of the day. A breakout and retest from the bottom to the top of this range will strike a blow to the buyers' positions, leading to stop-loss orders being triggered and opening the way to 1.2903, where the moving averages are located. The ultimate target will be the area of 1.2870, where I will take profit. Testing this level will significantly harm the pound's upward potential but will not change the overall picture. In the case of GBP/USD rising and no activity at 1.2974 in the second half of the day, buyers will have a chance to continue the growth. In this case, I will postpone sales until a false breakout at the level of 1.3001. If there is no downward movement, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3032, targeting a downward correction of 30-35 points.
In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 2, an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions were observed. Despite comments from Bank of England representatives regarding future policy and the likely rate cut in August this year, the pound recovered a bit and rebounded after a strong drop that occurred amid the high likelihood of divergence in the policies of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve System. Now traders are waiting for new benchmarks from the Fed, and these benchmarks will be Jerome Powell's speech in Congress and the US inflation data, which will help set the direction for risk assets in the coming weeks, including the British pound. The latest COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 4,206 to the level of 106,753, while short non-commercial positions fell by 13,787 to the level of 44,712. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 717.
Indicator Signals:
Moving Averages
Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further growth of the pound.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.2870 will act as support.
Indicator Descriptions:
Moving average: Defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving average: Defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands: Period 20.Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions: The total long open positions of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions: The total short open positions of non-commercial traders.Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.