Eurozone business activity indices were expected to edge higher, while the US PMI data were forecasted to decrease slightly. But everything turned out completely different. The euro area PMI data decreased significantly. However, the US PMIs report showed a rise. So, it's not surprising that the dollar strengthened its position. Now, the market is shifting from macroeconomic news, which has been practically absent in the last week of the month, to the news background. Moreover, it's more political than economic. Traditionally, there is relatively little activity in the markets at this time. Most likely, we will see some kind of rebound, after which the market will hover slightly above the current levels.
EUR/USD ended last week below the 1.0700 level, thus reflecting bearish sentiment among traders. However, there were no crucial changes, and market volatility was quite average.
On the 4-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the lower range, which also indicates a bearish bias.
On the same time frame, the Alligator's MAs are still heading downwards.
OutlookIn case the euro weakens further, the price could move towards this year's low. However, if the quote closes above the 1.0700 level by the end of the day, then in this case, the 1.0700/1.0760 cycle may resume.
In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term period, technical indicators are pointing to a bounce or a bullish bias. Meanwhile, in the intraday period, the indicators are reflecting a downward cycle.