The test of the 1.0881 price occurred when the MACD indicator started to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by more than 80 points. The reports released on Friday from the Eurozone did not provide significant support for the pair. At the same time, the U.S. labor market statistics led to a major sell-off of the euro, undermining buyers' plans to continue building an upward trend. A strong labor market contradicts the Fed's plans to lower interest rates and return price pressures to the 2.0% range. For this reason, at the upcoming Fed meeting, whose results will be announced this Wednesday, no policy changes are expected, which will continue to drive purchases of the U.S. dollar and sales of the euro.
Regarding statistics, today, in the first half of the day, Italy's industrial production volume changes and the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence indicator are due. The latter is more significant, but even very good numbers are unlikely to lead to a strong rise in the euro. Concerning the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2 for selling.
Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible at the price area of 1.0775 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to the level of 1.0806. At 1.0806, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. It is unlikely that the euro will rise significantly today, so be cautious when buying on the rise and breaking the daily high. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0747 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0775 and 1.0806 can be expected.
Sell SignalScenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0747 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0701, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will increase in case of unsuccessful consolidation around the daily high and poor Eurozone data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0775 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0747 and 1.0701 can be expected.
Important: Beginner traders on the Forex market need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.