GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on June 5th (analysis of morning deals). Sellers managed to protect 1.2779, but what's next

In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.2779 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The rise and formation of a false breakout there led to a sell signal, but after moving down by 12 points, the pressure on the pound decreased. As long as trading remains below 1.2779, the signal can be expected to work, but everything will depend on US data. The technical picture for the second half of the day still needs to be revised.

To open long positions on GBP/USD:

Only very strong data on the increase in employment from ADP, exceeding economists' forecasts, and an increase in business activity in the US services sector from ISM will lead to a decline in the pound and a return to yesterday's low, which I plan to take advantage of. A decline and formation of a false breakout around the new support at 1.2746 will provide an entry point for long positions, anticipating a return and update of 1.2779, which could not be surpassed in the first half of the day. Only a breakout and a reverse top-down test of this range will provide a suitable entry point for buying the pound, leading to an update of the next resistance at 1.2810, the month's high. The furthest target will be the 1.2853 area, where I plan to take profit. In the scenario of GBP/USD declining and a lack of bullish activity around 1.2746 amid strong US statistics, all buyers' efforts from yesterday will be negated. This will also lead to a decline and an update of the next support at 1.2721, formed at the end of last week. Only a false breakout formation will be suitable for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.2695 minimum with the goal of a 30-35 point correction within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD:

The advantage will stay with the sellers as long as trading remains below 1.2779. This will allow the morning sell signal to materialize, but as mentioned above, much depends on the US statistics. In case of weak data, the bears will have to prove their advantage again around 1.2779. A false breakout formation there, similar to what I discussed above, will confirm the presence of large sellers in the market and provide an entry point for short positions with the goal of further GBP/USD decline towards the support at 1.2746. A breakout and reverse bottom-up test of this range will give the bears an advantage and another entry point for a sale to update 1.2721, where I expect more active buyer presence. The furthest target will be the 1.2695 minimum, which will trap the pair in a wide sideways channel. There, I will take profit. With GBP/USD rising and no bears at 1.2779 in the second half of the day, buyers will regain the initiative, having the opportunity to update 1.2810. I will also sell there only on a false breakout. If there is no activity, I advise opening short positions on GBP/USD from 1.2853, anticipating a 30-35 point downward correction within the day.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator, around 1.2760, will act as support.

Indicator descriptions: