The first test of the 1.0849 price occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. Shortly after, another test of this price happened when the MACD indicator was in the overbought area, which triggered a selling scenario (#2). Unfortunately, US data was very disappointing as manufacturing activity declined much more than economists had predicted. This did not result in a decline of the pair but in its rise, leading to a loss in the trade. Today, reviewing the data on the change in the number of unemployed in Germany for April this year and the unemployment rate is important. Poor figures will be a reason to sell the euro, which buyers might eagerly exploit to continue the uptrend observed yesterday. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing buying scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro at around 1.0893 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0924. At 1.0924, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Counting on the euro's rise today is only possible after very good data from Germany. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0872 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse market turn upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0893 and 1.0924 can be expected.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0872 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0845 level. I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will increase in case of a failure to consolidate around the daily high and weak German statistics. Important! Before selling, please ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.0893 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse market turn downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0872 and 1.0845 can be expected.
Chart Key:
Thin green line – Entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.Thick green line – Expected price for setting Take profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.Thin red line – Entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.Thick red line – Expected price for setting Take profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.MACD Indicator – When entering the market, following overbought and oversold zones is important.Important: Beginner traders in the forex market must make decisions cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses.
You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes. Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.