Analysis of transactions and tips on trading the Japanese yen
The price test of 156.58 came at a time when the pair sank quite strongly and when the MACD indicator was in the oversold area, which allowed scenario No. 2 to be realized for the purchase in the expectation of a dollar recovery in continuation of the bullish trend. That's what happened, after which the pair went up about 40 points. There are a lot of statistics on the United States ahead, so dollar purchases, in the case of good indicators, are still ongoing. Figures are expected on the change in GDP for the first quarter of this year, which turned out to be much worse than the fourth quarter of last year. We are also waiting for figures on the weekly number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, the balance of foreign trade in goods, and the volume of pending home sales in the United States. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when I reach the entry point in the area of 156.95 (green line on the chart) in order to grow to the level of 157.64 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 157.64, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). It is possible to count on the pair's growth today in continuation of the trend, but this requires strong US GDP data and active buyer actions at highs. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 156.43 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal of the market. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 156.95 and 157.64.
Sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after updating the level of 156.43 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target of sellers will be the level of 155.84, where I will exit sales, as well as immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of weak US data and a poor GDP report. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 156.95 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.43 and 155.84.
Chart Explanation:
Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
Thick green line: Expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
Thick red line: Expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to use overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.