EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on May 29th (analysis of morning deals). The euro is pushing in the channel

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.0842 level and planned to make decisions about entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened there. The decline occurred, but it never reached the formation of a false breakdown, so it was not possible to get a clear signal to enter the market. In this regard, the technical picture was revised for the afternoon.

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Traders were not particularly impressed by the data on Germany and the eurozone, so now all attention will be shifted to the figures on German inflation and data on the US Federal Reserve-Richmond manufacturing index and the Fed's economic survey by region, called the "Beige Book." A decrease in inflation can positively affect the euro, so buyers have a very good chance of continuing growth despite the correction that the pair underwent in the first half of the day. The optimal strategy for me will be to buy in the area of the new support 1.0831, formed at the end of the first half of the day. I'm going to open long positions there only after the formation of a false breakout, which will be a suitable option to enter the market based on growth and a test of a new resistance of 1.0858, just above which the moving averages are located, which can create several problems for buyers. A breakout and a top-down update of this range will strengthen the pair with a chance of a return to the uptrend and a breakout to 1.0888. The farthest target will be a maximum of 1.0918, where I will record profits. If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0831 in the afternoon, the pressure on the market will return, leading to a larger drop in the pair to the 1.0803 area. I will also enter there only after the formation of a false breakout. I plan to open long positions immediately for a rebound from 1.0772 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers have chances to bring the market back under control, but first, it would be nice to declare themselves in the area of a new resistance of 1.0858, the test of which must occur after the statistics release. Only a false breakout there will give an entry point into new short positions against the trend with the prospect of a decline in the euro and an update of support at 1.0831, which the bulls managed to hold during European trading. A breakout and consolidation below this range and a reverse bottom-up test will give another selling point, with the pair moving to the low of 1.0803, where I expect to see a more active manifestation of buyers. The farthest target will be a minimum of 1.0772, where I will record profits. In the event of an upward movement of EUR/USD in the afternoon and the absence of bears in the area of 1.0858, buyers will be able to regain the market. In this case, I will postpone sales until the next resistance test of 1.0888 – the weekly maximum. I will also sell there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately for a rebound from 1.0918 with the aim of a downward correction of 30-35 points.

Indicator Signals:

Moving AveragesTrading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a further decline in the pair.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which differ from the classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary, around 1.0831, will provide support.

Indicator Descriptions