Analysis of transactions and tips on trading the British pound
The tests of the levels I indicated did not happen in the first half of the day. This was the lack of important statistics for the UK, which led to low market volatility and trading volume. In the second half of the day, the situation may change, as quite interesting indicators are expected: the consumer confidence indicator and the change in the housing price index in the 20 largest US cities from S&P/Case-Shiller may lead to a major sell-off of the US dollar, and for this it only needs the indicators to be worse than economists' forecasts. If consumer confidence finally grows for the first time this year, the pressure may return to the British pound. So, a lot depends on the indicators today. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when I reach the entry point in the area of 1.2790 (green line on the chart) to grow to the level of 1.2833 (thicker green line on the chart). In the area of 1.2833, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pound's growth can be counted on today to continue the upward trend, but only after the breakdown of the monthly maximum and weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 1.2761 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2790 and 1.2833.
A sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.2761 (the red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target of sellers will be the level of 1.2708, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will prove themselves in the event of a lack of buyer activity near the monthly high and strong data on consumer confidence in the United States. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 1.2790 at a time when the MACD indicator will be in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2761 and 1.2708.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy a trading instrument.
Thick green line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profits yourself, since further growth is unlikely above this level.
Thin red line is the entry price at which a trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profits yourself since further decline is unlikely below this level.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very carefully. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You need to place stop orders to avoid losing the entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management but trade in large volumes.
Remember that for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, following the example I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.