Analysis of transactions and tips on trading the European currency
The tests of the levels I indicated did not happen in the first half of the day. The reason for all this was the lack of important statistics on the eurozone and low market volatility, accompanied by weak trading volume. The situation may change in the afternoon, as quite interesting indicators related to the American economy are expected. An indicator of consumer confidence in the United States is expected for May this year, and the data is expected to be very depressing. Economists are betting on a further decline in the indicator, which may fall for the fifth month. Given that the Fed is not going to fulfill its promises to lower interest rates yet, the dynamics will likely remain downward, which may put pressure on the dollar and give confidence to buyers of the European currency. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.
Buy signal
Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy euros when the price reaches 1.0885 (the green line on the chart) to grow to the level of 1.0920. At 1.0920, I will exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, counting on a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. The euro's upward movement today can be counted on to continue the upward trend – especially after weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to grow from it.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today for two consecutive price tests of 1.0867 when the MACD indicator will be in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect an increase to the opposite levels of 1.0885 and 1.0920.
A sell signal
Scenario No. 1: I will sell euros after reaching the level of 1.0867 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0828 level. I plan to exit the market and buy euros immediately in the opposite direction (counting on a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). The pressure on the pair will return in case of unsuccessful buyer activity in the area of the daily maximum and strong statistics in the United States. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline.
Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0885 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse downward reversal of the market. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0867 and 1.0828.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line is the entry price at which you can buy a trading instrument.
Thick green line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profits yourself, since further growth is unlikely above this level.
Thin red line is the entry price at which a trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line is the estimated price where you can place Take profit or fix profits yourself, since further decline is unlikely below this level.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very carefully. Before releasing important fundamental reports, staying out of the market is best to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. If you decide to trade during the news release, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must place stop orders to avoid losing the entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management but trade in large volumes.
Remember that for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, following the example I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.