Trade analysis and tips for trading the British pound
The test of the price at 1.2610 came at a time when the MACD indicator had risen significantly from the zero mark, limiting the further upside potential of the pair. Scenario #2 for selling did not materialize. The absence of statistics from the UK pushed the pound above the weekly high, but that was all, as important data from the US lay ahead. There will be a market reaction to the figures for the Consumer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy prices in the US, as well as to changes in retail sales volume and the Empire Manufacturing Index. Inflation growth will lead to a decline in the pound and purchases of the dollar, while a decrease in prices, or if the figures align with forecasts - all this is a reason to buy the pound to continue the upward trend. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on the realization of Scenario #1 without paying attention to the MACD indicator readings, as I expect major market movements.
Buy Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point reaches around 1.2627 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.2680 (thicker green line). At around 1.2680, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pound growth can only be expected today after weak statistics on price growth in the US. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2602 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.2627 and 1.2680.
Sell Signal
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after updating the level of 1.2602 (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.2557, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will show themselves in case of a lack of activity around the daily maximum and strong data from the US. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.2627 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.2602 and 1.2557.
What's on the chart:
Thin green line – entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought.
Thick green line – expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
Thick red line – expected price where you can set Take Profit or independently fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your deposit without placing stop orders, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.